The Expert Meeting for establishment of a regional working group and working process between North West Indian Ocean (NWIO) countries on risk knowledge is being hosted by the Directorate General of Meteorology of the Sultanate of Oman. The IOC-UNESCO Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWMS) Secretariat and the Indian Ocean Information Centre (IOTIC) are jointly coordinating the meeting. The Expert Meeting will contribute to the project on “Strengthening tsunami early waring in the NWIO through regional collaboration” funded through the ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness. Specifically, the meeting will contribute to better understand the tsunami risk of the Makran subduction zone based on scientific research. Attendees will include seismologists, tsunami modellers and researchers actively working on the Makran subduction zone. The Makran subduction zone is still poorly understood even though it poses a major tsunami risk in the North West Indian Ocean. Several decades after the 1945 tsunami that causes hundreds of confirmed fatalities, there are still open questions about whether the Makran is able to generate such large tsunamis in the future. In the worst case of such an event, tsunami waves generated at the Makran source would reach adjoining shores within a few tens of minutes, posing enormous challenges for tsunami early warning systems. There is an urgent need for scientific tsunami hazard assessment of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) based on existing knowledge as well as relevant projects being implemented in the regional by international scientific groups. This information will enable Member States to assess their tsunami risk, strengthen warning systems including inter-agency standard operating procedures, warning chains, develop evacuation plans, build emergency response capacity and raise community awareness, preparedness and resilience. Strategies for strengthening tsunami early warning in the North West Indian Ocean have been discussed previously at the Expert Consultation on Scientific Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Makran Subduction Zone (Kish Island, March 2019) and the UNESCAP analytical workshop (Tehran, February 2017). The Expert Meeting will build upon these meetings with the main output being a gap analysis and strategy for regional cooperation to develop a unified regional tsunami hazard map developed by a NWIO working group on risk knowledge. Emphasis will be placed on 1) optimal observing networks in the MSZ, 2) seismicity of the MSZ and credible maximum earthquake, 3) tsunami hazard assessment in the MSZ, 4) potential impacts of seismic and secondary non-seismic effects on tsunami generation in the MSZ including the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, and 5) the last mile. Sessions dedicated to developing the work plan of the IOTWMS Subregional Working Group for the North West Indian Ocean and Task Team on Scientific Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the MSZ will be included in the agenda.

IOC-UNESCO and UNESCAP launch the project on strengthening tsunami early warning in the North West Indian Ocean region through regional cooperation (IOC Tsunami Programme website)